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美媒对中国货币政策及对美国的影响所发布的报告，来源于YAHOO!
Before Chinese President Hu Jintao came to Washington D.C. to attend President Obama's nuclear summit this week, financial markets were buzzing over the possibility of an announcement on China's currency.
This is a hot-button issue for many Americans: Most economists believe China is keeping its currency undervalued by at least 20%, making Chinese exports more competitive in the global market at the expense of U.S. manufacturing jobs.
Hopes for a formal announcement on China's currency have been dashed, so far. But "there should be movement fairly soon," says Mark Dow, a fund manager at Pharo Management, a global macro hedge fund with about $3 billion in assets.
According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect some movement by June 30.
So what would a change in China's exchange-rate policy mean for American consumers and workers?
In theory, a stronger renminbi (alternatively known as the yuan) would make the price of Chinese goods higher in the U.S., thus lowering demand; meanwhile, U.S. goods will be cheaper in China, raising demand. That should result in "new production and new hiring" in the U.S.," says Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at Brusuelas Analytics and former director at Moody's Economy.com. "But there's a stark difference between theory and reality."
Indeed, most experts believe any movement on China's currency will have little impact on Americans -- either in terms of job prospects or prices for Chinese-made goods at Wal-Mart (or anywhere else, for that matter).
"Of all the things for Americans to worry about, the idea cheap imports are about to end isn't one of them," says Marc Chandler, chief foreign exchange strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, citing three key reasons:
* -- The Long March: Chinese manufacturers have a "long-term strategy to grow their U.S. presence," Chandler says. In other words, they'll be willing to keep prices low and sacrifice some profit margins in order to maintain (and gain) market share.
* -- So Insensitive: Global trade is "not that sensitive to currency movements," he says, noting 40% to 50% of the costs of imported goods are "incurred domestically," mainly via transportation, storage and marketing costs. For example, the Australian dollar has risen about 1.7% vs. the greenback in the past month, but "we shouldn't expect lamb chops to be more expensive," Chandler quips.
* -- Slow & Steady: Since mid-2008, China has maintained a peg of about 6.8 yuan to the dollar, and allowed for a daily trading band of plus or minus 0.5% around that level. If and when China allows its currency to float - or merely trade in a wider band vs. the dollar - it will do so in very gradual steps. And even if the Chinese were to widen the trading band to 1%, "in practice it will be in a much smaller range -- too small to be consequential," Chandler says.
What's Good for China? Most currency experts agree on these main points, as well as the notion that any move China makes will mainly be about "its own economic and social development needs," as President Hu said in Washington on Monday.
"What the exchange rate will do is over time is allow China to reorient the allocation of resources toward domestic demand and away from export-led industries," Dow says. "But it's a slow process and one as an American consumer you're not going to feel very much."
In fact, Dow says the biggest change in U.S.-Chinese economic relations has been the bursting of the credit bubble. The U.S. trade surplus with China has been shrinking steadily since November 2008, and China just reported its first monthly trade deficit since May 2004.
As discussed in the accompanying video, Dow believes that trend is going to continue as Chinese consumers begin to spend more and Americans both saving more and unable (or unwilling) to ‘borrow and spend.'
"People overstate the role currency plays in global imbalances - it's much more about the credit bubble we were in," he says. "Our imports have declined because our borrowing power has declined significantly. It's about [Americans] reducing consumption."
In part for these reasons, and in order to let Chinese officials appear as if they're not giving in to U.S. demands, the Obama administration has taken a very diplomatic approach with regards to the currency issue. That's one reason why Treasury decided to delay a report that could have named China a currency manipulator and why China's official media gave prominent coverage to Obama's assurances to Hu that the U.S. respects Chinese sovereignty regarding the currency, as The New York Times reports.
That will probably refuel what Brusuelas calls the "political circus" in Washington, which is likely to put China's currency in the center ring ahead of the upcoming mid-term elections. |
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发表于 2010-4-21 10:32:54
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